Harris Poll: Senator Obama Just 4 Points Behind Clinton

This shows that Barack Obama gains ground on Hillary Clinton as more Americans learn about him.


Barack Obama Narrows the Gap and Closes in on Hillary Clinton

Al Gore and John Edwards Still a Long Way Behind Them

While 13 points separated Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama just one month ago in the race for the Democratic nomination for President, the gap between them has narrowed considerably to just four points. Just over one-third (36%) of adults who would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus would vote for Senator Clinton, while 32 percent would vote for Senator Obama. Last month, 40 percent would vote for Senator Clinton and 27 percent said they would vote for Senator Obama.

Of the next closest potential candidates, only one is an actual candidate. However, both are very far behind the two front-runners. Al Gore is next in preference as 14 percent would vote for him, followed by 12 percent who would vote for John Edwards. The other six candidates and potential candidates are all even further behind with only Governor Bill Richardson above one percent – he is at three percent. The Democratic primary race is clearly a two person race at this point in time.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 3,304 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive® between June 1 and 12, 2007. This survey included 1,196 adults who expect to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and like all polls conducted well before an election, it should not be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential "horse race", at a very early stage in the race. A previous column reviewed the data on the Republican candidates.

Before being asked to pick their first choice in the primary elections, the adults surveyed were also shown a list of all the main candidates in both parties and some other well-known Republicans and Democrats, and asked which of them they would consider voting for. They could name as many people, in both parties, as they wished.

Among Democrats, more people say they would consider voting for Hillary Clinton (70%) than for Barack Obama (57%). However, Obama edges Clinton among Independents (by 38% to 33%). Among the next tier of candidates, half of Democrats (49%) would consider Al Gore, while 43 percent of Democrats would consider John Edwards.

Overall Democratic Leaders Continue to be Preferred over Republicans

When the replies of all adults are taken together, 67 percent would consider voting for one of the Democrats and 59 percent would consider voting for one of the Republican leaders. While almost all Democrats (96%) and Republicans (92%) would consider one of the leaders from their own party, the Independents are pretty equally divided. Two thirds (68%) of Independents would consider one of the Democratic leaders while 60 percent would consider one of the Republican leaders.